How to set a realistic target price

A realistic target price is a price that is a genuine saving compared with what the trip usually costs, but not so low that it will almost never happen. The simplest method is to check the current and recent prices for your trip, find the typical price, and set your target a little below it, at a level where you would book straight away without second thoughts. If nothing gets close after a while, raise it a bit.

This guide walks through how to do that for flights and hotels, and the common mistakes to avoid.

Why the target matters

A price alert is only as useful as its target.

• Too high and you will be alerted to prices that are not really good, so you may book too early or ignore the emails.
• Too low and the alert may never fire. You end up booking late, when prices are often higher, or not at all.

The goal is a target that sits in the lower part of the normal price range for your trip.

Step 1: find the normal price

Before choosing a number, get a feel for what the trip costs.

1. Search the exact trip you want: same route or hotel, dates, cabin or room, number of travellers and filters.
2. Note the cheapest sensible option, the one you would actually book, not one with a terrible connection or a room you would not accept.
3. Repeat over a few days if you can. Prices move, and one search can be misleading.
4. Look at nearby dates too. If prices for nearby days are much lower, that suggests where the floor might be.

Make sure you compare total prices including taxes and, where relevant, fees and baggage.

Step 2: decide what a good price means to you

Ask yourself: at what price would I book immediately, without wanting to wait for something better? That number is a good candidate for your target.

It helps to think about:

• Your budget. The most you can comfortably spend.
• How much saving matters. On a cheap trip, a small saving may not be worth waiting for. On an expensive one, even a modest percentage can be worth it.
• Your deadline. The closer the trip, the less time you have to wait for a drop.

Step 3: set the target slightly below typical

A practical starting point is a little below the typical price you found. How far below depends on the trip:

• Popular dates and peak seasons usually have less room to fall. Keep the target closer to the typical price.
• Quiet periods and flexible trips may have more room. You can aim a bit lower.
• Routes or cities with lots of competition can see bigger swings.

Avoid basing the target on a single extraordinary price you once saw or heard about. Unusual sale fares are real but rare, and an alert waiting for one may never fire.

Step 4: review and adjust

Targets are not fixed. Check in on your alert from time to time.

• If prices never come close, raise the target, add flexibility or accept a stop.
• If prices keep hitting the target easily, you may have set it too high. Consider lowering it, or simply book.
• As the date approaches, decide on a point at which you will book anyway.

Ways to make a target easier to hit

• Flexible dates. Searching a few days either side gives more chances. See how flexible dates help.
• More stops. Allowing a connection can lower flight prices.
• Broader hotel searches. Searching a city instead of one hotel, or relaxing star class or rating filters, widens the options.
• Free cancellation. For hotels, booking a refundable rate early and setting a lower target to rebook is a safe approach. See the free cancellation strategy.

Common mistakes

• Comparing a price without taxes or bags against one with them.
• Setting the target for one traveller when the search is for several.
• Forgetting that prices are shown in your chosen currency, which can change with exchange rates.
• Treating a recently seen price as guaranteed. The live price is only confirmed on the booking site. See cached vs live prices.

How to set a Trigger for it

1. Search your trip on flights or hotels and look at the prices shown.
2. Enter a target price a little below the typical price, at the level you would book straight away.
3. Create the alert. Trigger re-checks the price regularly and checks more often when the price comes within 10% of your target.
4. When the price is at or below your target, Trigger emails you right away with a link to book on a trusted partner site. After that, you only get another email if the price drops at least 5% further, at most once a day.
5. If nothing happens for a while, set up a new alert with an adjusted target or wider filters.

Trigger is free and you can have up to 10 active alerts. Learn more in how it works.